Strategies for Trading Analog Devices Stock Prior to Earnings Reports
Analog Devices (ADI), a leading semiconductor producer with a market capitalization of $115 billion, is set to announce its Q3 earnings on August 20, 2025. The company has shown a strong performance in the past, with earnings expected to be approximately $1.95 per share, reflecting a 23% increase compared to the previous year.
ADI has a history of beating earnings estimates and exhibiting positive price movements around earnings events. In the last four consecutive quarters, the company has reported positive earnings surprises. However, the exact probability of ADI experiencing a positive one-day post-earnings return is not explicitly stated in the available data.
Historically, about 75% (9/12) of ADI's earnings events have seen a pre-earnings run-up, averaging a 2.7% gain before earnings. While this suggests a tendency for positive price movement around earnings events, it does not directly measure one-day post-earnings returns.
The performance of peers can influence post-earnings stock reactions for ADI, and pricing-in might commence prior to the earnings announcements. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns in the provided historical data also reflect post-earnings one-day returns.
Correlation Statistics
The correlation statistics in the table below are based on a strategy that considers the correlation between 1-day (1D) post-earnings returns and subsequent 5-day (5D) returns for ADI. The median of the 9 positive returns is 5.0%, and the median of the 10 negative returns is -1.8%.
| Correlation Period | Number of Returns | Median Return | |-------------------|------------------|---------------| | 1D | 19 | 0.0% | | 5D | 19 | 5.0% | | 21D | 19 | 1.1% |
Additionally, the correlation between 1-day (1D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns for ADI is also summarized in the table.
Market Performance
Over the last five years, ADI has achieved a positive one-day return in 47% of cases after earnings announcements, and this percentage rises to 58% in the last 3 years. The High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved greater than 91% returns since its inception.
ADI is a highly diversified semiconductor producer with exposure to several high-growth markets, including AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, industrial automation, aerospace, and communications. The company's revenue for the past twelve months was $9.8 billion, yielding $2.3 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.8 billion.
Revenue is anticipated to rise by 20% to $2.76 billion. Margins may trend slightly higher to around 41.5%, supported by improved cost efficiency and pricing power. The Trefis RV strategy has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark, producing strong returns for investors.
Investors interested in precise historical probability metrics for ADI’s one-day post-earnings performance would need to analyze historical price data on earnings days specifically, which is not included in the search results. Consulting detailed earnings day price return datasets or financial databases (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet) would be necessary for such analysis.
Investors might anticipate a potential increase in Analog Devices (ADI) stock after the Q3 earnings announcement, given its history of reporting positive earnings surprises. However, the exact odds of ADI experiencing a positive one-day post-earnings return are not explicitly stated in the available data.
For those interested in analyzing the historical probability metrics of ADI's one-day post-earnings performance, detailed earnings day price return datasets or financial databases (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet) would be necessary for a comprehensive analysis. This could provide valuable insights into potential revenue and valuation changes for ADI.
