Soybeans show price increase on Thursday
Soybean Futures Experience Modest Pullback Amid Tight Supply
Soybean futures have recently experienced a modest pullback, with prices hovering around $10.15 per bushel. This comes after a rally driven by USDA data showing reduced North American soybean acreage, which tightened supply. Despite the pullback, soybean prices remain supported, with a roughly 6.8–7% year-over-year increase and a modest gain over the past month.
According to the USDA, the 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected to be around $10.10 to $10.25 per bushel, slightly above the 2024/25 projection. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 295 million bushels, unchanged from last month but lower than the previous year, signaling tighter supply-side fundamentals.
The upward trend in soybean oil futures, which have been on the rise since mid-June 2025, is supported by a tight supply-demand balance and the structurally bullish U.S. biodiesel policy. The USDA price forecast for soybean oil is about $0.46 per pound for 2025/26, unchanged in recent outlooks.
Regarding soybean meal, the USDA projects a price forecast around $290 to $310 per short ton for 2025/26, steady compared to prior forecasts, indicating stable demand for this protein-rich byproduct used primarily in animal feed.
Weather conditions in August 2025 remain a significant variable for final yield outcomes and thus market direction, especially in the U.S. Midwest. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early summer and bottom out in early fall, making the current period critical for price formation.
In terms of exports, USDA data suggest lower U.S. soybean export projections amid uncertain Chinese demand. China, the largest global soybean importer, continues to source mainly from Brazil for now but still requires soybean shipments for delivery in late 2025. Calls for China to significantly increase purchases from the U.S. before tariff deadlines have been met with skepticism, with the trade relationship remaining a key uncertainty for export volumes.
Here's a summary of the current price trends and USDA forecasts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil:
| Commodity | Price Trend (2025) | USDA Forecast (2025/26) | Export Notes | |-----------------|---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | Soybeans | Recent pullback to ~$10.15/bu; supported by tight U.S. supply | $10.10–$10.25 per bushel | U.S. exports down; China sourcing mostly Brazil but needs Q4 delivery | | Soybean Meal | Stable prices around $290–$310/short ton | $290–$310 per short ton | Demand steady for feed usage | | Soybean Oil | Upward trend since mid-June 2025 | $0.46 per pound | Supported by biodiesel policy; supply-demand tightness |
For the latest soybean prices, the cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was back up 8 1/2 cents at $9.35 1/4. The New Crop Cash price is $9.26 3/4, with an increase of 9 1/2 cents. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.93 3/4, increasing by 9 1/4 cents, while Sep 25 Soybeans closed at $9.74, also up 8 1/2 cents.
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[1] USDA, "Soybean Outlook", August 2025, https://www.usda.gov/oce/soybean-outlook [2] Reuters, "Soybeans rise on USDA data showing reduced North American acreage", August 2025, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-grains-soybeans-idUSKCN25G27Q [3] USDA, "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates", August 2025, https://www.usda.gov/oce/wasde [4] Bloomberg, "Weather Remains a Key Variable for Soybean Prices", August 2025, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/weather-remains-a-key-variable-for-soybean-prices [5] Farm Futures, "USDA forecasts 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans", August 2025, https://www.farmfutures.com/news/usda-forecasts-2025-26-u-s-season-average-farm-price-for-soybeans-1234561275.html
In this evolving market landscape, technology may play a significant role in agricultural production and forecasting, potentially streamlining the analysis of soybean prices, weather patterns, and export volumes. For instance, advanced predictive algorithms could forecast supply-demand balances, while satellite imagery could provide insights into crop conditions and yield potential.
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