Ripple Updates: Detailed Timeframe of SEC Lawsuit and Forecast for XRP-based ETF Approval
The long-running legal battle between Ripple Labs, Brad Garlinghouse, Chris Larsen, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally come to an end, with a $125 million settlement agreed upon and XRP officially not classified as a security for past sales. Although the case is still technically active until the SEC’s procedural status report is approved by the U.S. Second Circuit Court, the SEC’s evolving stance and recent developments strongly favor the approval of spot XRP ETFs by the end of 2025.
The SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, accusing them of selling XRP tokens without registering them as securities. Ripple countered with a motion to dismiss and challenged the SEC’s statements, arguing that XRP is a currency and not a security. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP on the public exchange did not violate the securities laws, but found that institutional sales totaling $728 million disobeyed the rules.
The conclusion of the Ripple vs SEC case has removed an obstacle from the path of ETF approval and has caused the odds for XRP ETF approval to rise significantly. According to industry analysts, the probability for spot XRP ETF approval by Q4 2025 is roughly 79% to 95%. This optimism is due to several factors:
- The legal clarity gained from Ripple’s near-resolution with the SEC.
- The appointment of a more crypto-friendly SEC Chair Paul Atkins in April 2025.
- The launch of XRP futures on CME in May 2025, potentially qualifying XRP ETFs for an expedited SEC review process.
- A supportive political environment under the current administration and crypto-friendly Congress.
In parallel, the SEC has already approved a leveraged XRP futures ETF, the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, which offers investors exposure to XRP via futures contracts rather than the underlying asset itself. Key upcoming regulatory dates to watch include the SEC’s deadline for deciding on the Grayscale XRP ETF application on October 18, 2025, and the expected approval window for multiple spot XRP ETFs in Q4 2025.
Several major asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree, have already filed XRP ETF applications. The ending of the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple immediately changed the market sentiment, causing the odds for XRP ETF approval to rise to 77%. The XRP price has made a surge and reached $3.30 after the settlement, pushing XRP's market capitalization back above $180 million.
While BlackRock has not yet confirmed any plans to enter the XRP ETF market, speculation about the company filing for an iShares XRP Trust has intensified following the settlement. Additionally, the SEC treated XRP as a security for direct institutional sales in the mixed verdict, which could shape the future of XRP ETF approval.
In summary, while the Ripple case is not fully closed, the SEC’s evolving stance and recent developments strongly favor the approval of spot XRP ETFs by the end of 2025, marking a significant milestone for XRP’s regulated market access in the U.S.
Technology advancements in the cryptocurrency space have been fueled by recent events, such as the conclusion of the legal battle between Ripple Labs and the SEC, which has increased the odds for XRP ETF approval. Bitcoin and Ethereum investors now have additional options to diversify their portfolios with XRP, as several major asset managers have filed XRP ETF applications. The approval of spot XRP ETFs could potentially bring increased investor interest and further growth to the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets.
