Jet demand forecast reduced by Boeing due to slower economic expansion.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) has rehearsed a rosy forecast for the global aviation market over the next two decades, anticipating a demand for around 43,600 new planes. This growth is primarily driven by rising demand from China and Southeast Asia, as more people access air travel.
Although ongoing geopolitical tensions persist, including trade disputes and tariffs, the aviation sector has historically proven resilient, weathering global disruptions.
Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, expressed optimism during a June 10 press briefing. He pointed out the remarkable resilience of global air travel, which has not only survived crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic but has also rebounded from them. In the past quarter-century, passenger traffic has tripled while the size of the global aircraft fleet has doubled.
Hulst characterized the commercial aviation market as both resilient and growth-oriented, despite near-term challenges.
Boeing's updated forecast anticipates the total number of commercial jets in operation reaching 49,600 by 2044. This is in close alignment with the outlook released by European rival Airbus (OTCPK: EADSF, EADSY). Boeing also projects that airlines in developing economies will operate over half the world's aircraft by then, up from just under 40% today.
Embracing Single-Aisle Aircraft
The company expects single-aisle aircraft to become even more dominant, making up 72% of the global fleet by 2044, a notable increase from the current 66%.
This trend is fuelled by the sustained popularity of narrowbody models such as Boeing's 737 Max and Airbus's A320neo series. These aircraft are in high demand but remain scarce due to lingering supply constraints.
The unprecedented surge in post-pandemic travel demand has outpaced production, leaving both Boeing and Airbus behind schedule. Hulst indicates that, collectively, the manufacturers have fallen short by delivering about 1,500 fewer jets than planned, a gap likely to widen unless they significantly ramp up production.
To meet future demand, they will need to not only return to pre-Covid output levels but also surpass them by the latter part of the decade.
Embracing Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are expected to drive the majority of global aviation growth over the next two decades. These regions, characterized by expanding middle classes and long-term aviation investment, are projected to represent more than 50% of the global commercial fleet by 2044.
Boeing's forecast highlights the critical role of single-aisle aircraft in meeting short-haul demand and the significant growth potential in emerging markets.
Glimpse into Boeing and Airbus
- Boeing Has Clearer Skies Ahead But The Turnaround Is Not Over
- Airbus: May Orders Stall, Deliveries Dip, But Backlog Supports Long-Term Upside
- Boeing: Unlocking The $50 Billion Win For The MAX
- Paris Air Show opens amid crashes, conflicts and cost pressures
- Boeing resumes aircraft deliveries to China as tariff war eases
Technology will play a significant role in Boeing's plans for the future, as rising demand for air travel in emerging markets will necessitate advanced, efficient aircraft.
Boeing and Airbus will need to increase production of single-aisle aircraft like the 737 Max and A320neo series to meet the unprecedented surge in post-pandemic travel demand, indicating a crucial role for technology in boosting manufacturing capacity.
