Grains Suffer Setbacks on Friday, with Corn Experiencing Declines
The corn market has seen some recent volatility, with prices trending downwards compared to previous months and last year. Corn futures prices peaked at around $3.84 per bushel on August 15, 2025, but have since dropped approximately 5% over the past month and 2% compared to last year[1]. Cash corn prices, as of mid-August 2025, were approximately $3.63 3/4 per bushel, showing a small rebound on the day but reflecting a general decline over recent weeks[4].
The USDA's recent Crop Production reports and forecasts have played a significant role in this price scenario. The USDA predicts a record large corn crop and increased supply, contributing to the downward pressure on prices[5]. As a result, the USDA lowered its estimated average U.S. farm price for corn from $4.20 to $3.90 per bushel in the August 2025 WASDE report[5].
Analysts expect that corn prices may continue to face softness in the near term given the large projected production and significant carryover stocks[4]. Price forecasts from macroeconomic models suggest corn may trade around $3.78 per bushel by the end of Q3 2025, with a downward trend continuing toward $3.60 in 12 months[1].
Weather conditions and export sales remain critical variables to watch in upcoming USDA Crop Production reports. Some Corn Belt areas have limited precipitation, potentially impacting yield and supply, while others have benefited[4]. Managed money (speculators) have also increased their net short positions, which weighs on futures prices[4].
As of the current date, Austin Schroeder has no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. For more information, please view the website Disclosure Policy here.
In summary:
- Corn futures and cash prices have recently dipped but showed some short-term recovery.
- USDA forecasts predict a record corn crop, resulting in lower expected farm prices (around $3.90/bu average).
- Supply abundance is a key factor pushing prices downward, with predictions suggesting a slow decline over the next year.
- Weather patterns and export sales remain critical variables to watch in upcoming USDA Crop Production reports[1][4][5].
- The USDA Crop Production reports are scheduled for next week.
- Corn futures for September and December decreased by 6 3/4 cents and 5 1/4 cents, respectively, on Friday.
- The Dec 25 Corn price is at $4.05 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents.
- All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
- USDA reported a private export sale of 125,000 MT of 2025/26 corn to unknown destinations this morning.
- The article does not provide any new information about the USDA Crop Production reports, private export sales, or commitment of traders data.
- The Cash Corn national average price was down 1 3/4 cents at $3.65 1/2 on Friday.
- Commitment of Traders data showed speculators trimming 7,435 contracts from their net short position as of August 5 to 173,750 contracts.
- The large projected corn crop and increased supply, driven by USDA's forecasts, combined with significant carryover stocks, are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on technology-driven futures and cash corn prices.
- Despite the recent dip in corn futures and cash prices, the use of advanced agricultural technology and accurate weather predictions will be crucial in monitoring critical variables such as crop yield and export sales in upcoming USDA Crop Production reports.
