Fifty years of Moore's Law reached this week, prompting debate about its future.
In a groundbreaking prediction made half a century ago, Gordon E. Moore, the founder of Intel, stated that the number of transistors in a silicon chip would double every two years. Known as Moore's Law, this statement has been the driving force behind the long-term planning of the tech industry, pushing us from an analogue to a digital age and transforming computing into an inexpensive, ubiquitous tool.
However, the end of Moore's Law is now in sight. According to analyst Michael Feldman, the physics of the underlying complementary metal oxide (CMOS) technology will make it impractical to shrink transistors much further, with the 7nm process technology nodes expected to reach their limit in 2020 or the 5nm process technology nodes in 2022.
As we enter the last years of shrinking transistors, the tech industry will have to adapt to a world where hardware performance power improvement will not come from shrinking transistors, but from improved design, emerging technologies, and potential future game changers. Leading vendors like Intel, IBM, and Nvidia are already gearing up for this shift.
Intel, for instance, has put together a 50th anniversary page explaining the lasting impact of Moore's Law. They are also investing in new AI-focused GPU architectures like the Arc Pro B50/B60, along with innovations in high-bandwidth memory, multi-GPU scaling, and specialized AI inference frameworks to enhance hardware performance despite transistor scaling limits. Nvidia, too, is developing new architectures such as Hopper and Blackwell, while IBM is working on the Power11 with Spyre Accelerator.
The end of Moore's Law does not mean the end of computer innovation, but rather a shift towards improved design, emerging technologies, and potential future game changers like 3D chip stacking, non-Von Neumann architectures, and graphene. Scientists have already built the most sophisticated graphene circuit to date, which could potentially revolutionise the post-Moore's Law world.
In the post-Moore's Law world, software will continue to leap forward, and algorithms will increase in sophistication. This presents exciting opportunities for innovation and growth, particularly for startups and small companies that are nimble and adaptable. OEMs and component makers would do well to start planning for this new era today.
The iPad 2, for example, would have been speedier than the world's supercomputers up until about 1994, due to Moore's Law. Fast forward to today, and the iPhone 6 is roughly 1 million times more powerful than an IBM computer from 1975, which took up an entire room. As we move into a world where hardware performance power improvement will come from improved design, emerging technologies, and potential future game changers, it's clear that the pace of technological advancement shows no signs of slowing down.
As we bid farewell to Moore's Law, we welcome a new era of innovation and growth. The tech industry is ready to face the challenges ahead and seize the opportunities that the post-Moore's Law world presents. Intel, for one, is embracing this change, with their 50th anniversary page serving as a testament to the lasting impact of Moore's Law and a nod to the exciting times that lie ahead.
