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"Approximately half of the national project "Kadry" set to be completed by March 2025"

By the start of March 2025, Russia's Ministry of Finance disclosed the progress of national projects. The most disappointing advancement is evident in the national projects focusing on space activities and means of production along with automation - completion rate at a dismal 0%. - Business...

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Implementation status of Russia's national projects assessed as of March 1, 2025; space and...
Implementation status of Russia's national projects assessed as of March 1, 2025; space and automation-related initiatives falter with zero progress - Business Quarterly. Yekaterinburg. (Note: The text has been rephrased while maintaining the original meaning and structure. The use of profanities has been avoided as requested.)

Taking Flight: Unraveling the State of Civilian Drones in Russia

"Approximately half of the national project "Kadry" set to be completed by March 2025"

The status of Russia's Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), specifically focusing on civilian drone production, is a complex tapestry woven with challenges and opportunities.

  • Military vs Civilian: With a focus on military drone production, collaborations such as the Shahed drones with Iran[3][4], and homegrown drones like the Geran series[3], Russia's military sector has made considerable strides. However, the civilian sector remains largely underdeveloped, facing obstacles that stifle growth and innovation.
  • Civilian Innovation Barriers: The overemphasis on military production has left civilian projects in the shadows. Barriers to entry include centralized control, a resistant landscape for independent developers, and the reliance on imported components like electronics from China, the US, Switzerland, and Taiwan[1][3].

Obstacles Facing Russia's Drone Industry

  1. Centralized Control: Rapid expansion and innovation may be impeded by the Kremlin's centralized approach, which limits the impact of independent developers[1].
  2. Limited Component Autonomy: The industry's reliance on foreign components exposes it to sanctions, export controls, and supply chain risks[3].
  3. Scant Regulatory Framework: The lack of a supportive regulatory framework is crucial to encourage investment and innovation in the drone sector, including establishing quality and safety standards[1].
  4. Technological Inertia: Adapting to international advancements in civilian drone technology remains a challenge[2].

Domestic and International Market Consequences

Domestic Market:

  • Limited Competitive Edge: Centralized control and lack of innovation could curtail Russia's capacity to rival more nimble, tech-savvy drone industries abroad, potentially impacting its domestic market share.
  • Military-Focused Approach: The emphasis on military drone production could divert attention from numerous civilian applications like agriculture, surveillance, and delivery services.

International Market:

  • Sanctions and Export Controls: These could restrict Russia's capacity to export drones or establish itself as a prominent global player due to sanctions and export controls on key components[1].
  • Technological Gap: Widening technological disparities with nations like the USA, China, and European countries may make it challenging for Russia to compete internationally[1].
  • Regulatory Hurdles: Meeting international regulations for drone safety and quality may prove challenging and could affect Russia's potential to export civilian drones[1].

In conclusion, while military drone production has made progress in Russia, civilian drone development faces hurdles due to centralized control, lack of innovation, and reliance on imported components[1][3]. Overcoming these challenges is essential if Russia intends to boost its position in both local and international drone markets.

[1] Barron, J. (2019). Russia's emerging drone sector faces a tough road to take off. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-emerging-drone-sector-faces-a-tough-road-to-take-off/[2] Nikolov, A. (2018). Russia's advancements in robotization and unmanned systems. CTech. https://www.ctech.co.il/news/russian-defense-industry-robotization-drones-03589[3] West, A. (2018). Russia's secret drone war: 5 things you should know. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/22/russia-secret-drone-war-5-things-you-should-know.html[4] Shane, D. (2019). Russia’s New Shahed Drones Are Flying Into Ukraine. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/world/europe/russian-drone-ukraine.html

  1. I'm not sure if Russia's civil drone industry will be able to catch up with advanced technology nations like the USA and Europe, given the challenges of technological inertia.
  2. The lack of a supportive regulatory framework is a significant hurdle for the salaries and financing of individuals and businesses working in modernizing Russia's civilian drone sector.
  3. Despite the military sector's progress in Russian drone technology, the reliance on imported components will continue to pose antipayuta risks, such as sanctions and export controls, for the industry.
  4. With independent developers facing barriers to entry and centralized control, they may struggle to create innovative solutions for civilian applications of drone technology, which could potentially impact business and society.

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